EUR/CHF Spike and Channel Bull Trend: What’s Next?
23.03.25 06:15The EUR/CHF exchange rate has formed a spike and channel bull trend, a key price action pattern that often signals market transitions. Understanding this structure helps traders anticipate the next move.
Spike and Channel Formation
The trend began with a strong bullish spike, reaching three key highs on March 6, March 11, and March 14, 2025. These three pushes up define the initial momentum phase.
The pullback to the March 10 low marked the transition into a channel, which has a wedge shape.
Formation of a Trading Range
The sharp move from March 10 to March 14 represents the first leg of a trading range. A decline toward 0.9490 would complete the second leg, creating a possible equilibrium.
If EUR/CHF reaches 0.9490, it would form a double bottom, a strong bullish setup. This could lead to a bounce, forming a double bottom bull flag—a pattern that often results in a breakout to the upside.
What Comes Next?
If the price action follows this setup, traders should watch for confirmation signals like rejection wicks or strong buying pressure at 0.9490. A successful hold at this level could trigger a rally.
On the other hand, if bears take control, EUR/CHF could break lower, extending the range further.
Conclusion
EUR/CHF is shifting from a spike and channel into a trading range. A double bottom at 0.9490 could trigger a bounce, but traders should monitor reactions at key levels to determine the next directional move.
Swiss Franc Under Pressure: Traders Bet on Further Decline
19.03.25 06:08The Swiss franc is facing increased selling pressure as traders pile into options betting on further depreciation. On March 17, 2025, trading activity in euro-franc options surged to €4.6 billion ($5 billion), making it one of the most active days on record. Nearly 90% of these positions anticipate further weakness in the Swiss currency.
The surge in euro-franc options trading underscores a market consensus anticipating further depreciation of the Swiss franc, driven by expectations of SNB monetary easing and significant fiscal developments in Germany.
Options Market Signals Further Losses
Traders are betting that the euro could soon reach 0.98 against the franc, with some positioning for parity later in the year. A notable trade includes a €132 million euro call option expiring in mid-August, targeting a move above 1.00. Risk reversals, a key options market gauge, show the most bearish outlook for the franc in over a year.
The franc was trading at 0.9590 per euro as of 6:10 a.m. in Zurich.
EUR/CHF Analysis: Navigating Market Volatility Amid Tariffs and SNB Rate Cuts
18.03.25 05:50The EUR/CHF pair has been under close watch by traders and economists, with recent geopolitical and monetary policy developments stirring up market volatility. In this blog post, we explore how President Trump’s tariff announcement and the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) anticipated rate cut have influenced market sentiment and the euro’s performance against the Swiss franc.
Tariff Tensions and the Shift to Safe-Haven Currencies
On March 17, 2025, President Trump announced plans to impose broad reciprocal tariffs as well as additional sector-specific tariffs set to take effect on April 2. Such measures have heightened global risk aversion and sent investors seeking the relative safety of strong, stable currencies. Traditionally, the Swiss franc is viewed as a safe-haven asset—its appeal growing amid uncertainty and trade tensions.
This increased risk aversion has historically pushed the euro lower when investors opt for more secure assets. Although the euro initially held strength, market sentiment shifted as the implications of heightened tariffs took hold, putting pressure on the EUR/CHF pair.
Adding to the evolving market dynamics, the Swiss National Bank is expected to lower its key policy rate by 25 basis points—from 0.50% down to 0.25%—at its March 20, 2025 meeting. This decision is part of the SNB’s ongoing strategy to combat persistently low inflation.
Recent Market Movements: EUR/CHF Trends
The combined effects of heightened risk aversion from the U.S. tariff announcements and the SNB’s dovish stance have had a tangible impact on the EUR/CHF exchange rate. On March 14, 2025, the pair surged to an eight-month high of 0.9663, reflecting earlier bullish sentiment before the full force of the geopolitical and monetary policy developments was felt.
Fast forward to May 18, 2025, and the EUR/CHF has settled at 0.9610. This slight retracement is indicative of investors rebalancing their portfolios in light of the emerging safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc. With trade tensions remaining unresolved and divergent monetary policies on the horizon, further volatility in the pair is a distinct possibility.
EUR/CHF forecast: Resistance at 0.9649, Next Target 0.9507
13.03.25 11:56EUR/CHF recently reached a high of 0.9649 on March 11, 2025. This was not a random price level—it was the result of a measured move, which is a common price action concept.
What Is a Measured Move?
A measured move is when the market repeats a price movement of similar size. In this case, the rally that started after EUR/CHF broke above 0.9507 on February 12 had a specific upward range. The price first moved from the low of February 10 to the high of February 12. The distance of this move was then projected upward from the high of February 12, leading to the high at 0.9649.
Why Is 0.9649 Important?
Because it was a measured move target, traders were already watching 0.9649 as a possible resistance level—meaning a price level where selling pressure could appear. This expectation was confirmed when EUR/CHF hit the same price again on March 12 but failed to break higher. When the market reaches the same price twice and cannot go higher, this forms a micro double top, which is a bearish pattern.
Bearish Rejection and the Next Key Level
After forming the micro double top, the price dropped, and the March 12 candlestick (bar) was a strong bear trend bar. This means that sellers were in control for most of the day, and EUR/CHF closed much lower than it opened.
Now, the price is falling, and the next key level to watch is 0.9507. This was the level where the measured move began when the price broke above it on March 5. Now that EUR/CHF is coming down, 0.9507 could act as support—a price level where buyers might step in.
Summary
- EUR/CHF reached 0.9649, a measured move target.
- The price tested this level twice (March 11 and 12) but could not break higher, forming a micro double top.
- On March 12, there was a strong bear trend bar, signaling that sellers took control.
- The price is now pulling back, and the next key level is 0.9507, where the previous breakout started.
EUR/CHF High 1 Buy Signal: A Successful Trade Explained
12.03.25 06:17A Simple Price Action Trade Explained: The EUR/CHF High 1 Buy Signal
Price action trading is a method where traders make decisions based on price movements rather than relying on technical indicators. One common price action setup is called a High 1 buy signal, which occurs when the price makes a new high after a pullback in an uptrend.
However, a High 1 is only reliable in a strong bull trend, especially during a spike—a sharp and sustained upward move. If the market is in a trading range or a weak bull trend, a High 1 signal is more likely to fail and should be ignored.
On March 11, 2025, EUR/CHF was in a strong bull trend and presented a textbook High 1 buy signal, which led to a successful trade. Let’s break it down step by step.
Step 1: Identifying the Setup
Before the buy signal appeared, EUR/CHF had been rising sharply since early March, forming a strong spike up. This indicated that bulls were in control.
On March 10, the price pulled back temporarily, reaching a low of 0.9490 before closing at 0.9539.
A High 1 buy signal occurs when the price moves above the previous day's high after a pullback. In this case, the high of March 10 was 0.9556. This meant that if EUR/CHF moved above 0.9556 on March 11, it would trigger a buy signal.
Because the market was in a strong bull trend, this High 1 had a high probability of success. If EUR/CHF had been in a trading range, the signal would have been ignored.
Step 2: Placing the Trade
A trader looking to take this trade would follow these steps:
1. Entry Point: The buy order is placed one pip above the high of March 10. Since the high was 0.9556, the buy order is set at 0.9557.
2. Stop-Loss Placement: A stop-loss is a level where the trader exits the trade to limit losses. In this case, the stop-loss was set one pip below the low of March 10. Since the low was 0.9490, the stop-loss was placed at 0.9489.
3. Target Placement: The target is set based on a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio. This means that the distance from entry to the target is the same as the distance from entry to the stop-loss.
- Entry at 0.9557
- Stop-loss at 0.9489 (a risk of 0.0068 or 68 pips)
- Target = Entry + 68 pips → 0.9625
Step 3: Trade Execution and Outcome
On March 11, EUR/CHF moved above 0.9556, triggering the buy order at 0.9557. The price continued to rise, reaching 0.9650 at its highest point.
Because the target was set at 0.9625, the trade was successfully completed when EUR/CHF surged past this level.
This trade worked well because:
- The market was in a strong bull trend, increasing the probability of success.
- The buy signal was in line with the overall trend.
- The stop-loss was placed safely below the recent low.
- The reward-to-risk ratio ensured a balanced approach to risk management.
Key Takeaways
1. A High 1 buy signal occurs when the price moves above the previous day's high after a pullback.
2. A High 1 is only reliable in a strong bull trend (a spike). If the market is in a trading range or a weak bull trend, the signal should be ignored.
3. The stop-loss is placed below the recent low to limit risk.
4. A 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio helps manage expectations and balance potential gains with losses.
5. This trade was successful because the price continued upward after triggering the buy signal.
Understanding these basic price action principles allows traders to make clear, rule-based decisions without relying on complex indicators.
EUR/CHF Rallies to 0.9620 on German Fiscal Boost and SNB Speculation
11.03.25 12:51The FX market remains focused on a best-case scenario for the euro as the expected approval of the huge German fiscal spending plan in the Bundestag supports the currency. On March 11, 2025, EUR/CHF reached 0.9620, reflecting strong market sentiment for the euro.
At the same time, slower US economic growth pushes investors into risk-off mode, which boosts the safe-haven appeal of the Swiss franc.
However, speculation over the upcoming SNB meeting on March 20 adds pressure on the franc as market participants anticipate a potential rate cut to curb excessive strength. The interplay between these factors creates a dynamic environment, with bulls and bears vying to establish a clear trend channel.
Bulls seek to build a bullish channel that sustains the rally, while bears aim for a bearish channel that could reverse the gains. Policy signals from both the SNB and the German parliament now play a crucial role in determining the next major move for EUR/CHF.
EUR/CHF Approaches Key Resistance – What’s Next?
11.03.25 10:43With EUR/CHF reaching 0.9615 today, bulls are still attempting to push higher. However, the key question remains whether they can sustain the breakout. Resistance between 0.9570 and 0.9580 has already been tested multiple times. If EUR/CHF holds above this area and builds momentum, another attempt at breaking 0.9636 could follow.
If the market rejects these higher levels again, the risk of a pullback increases. The first support zone remains at 0.9490–0.9510. A drop below this range would shift the focus toward 0.9450–0.9460, with a potential extension to 0.9400–0.9420. The outcome of the current battle between bulls and bears will determine the next big move.s
Euro Jumps to 0.9636 CHF – But a Pullback is Coming
09.03.25 06:41
The rise of EUR/CHF to 0.9636 on March 6, 2025, was a continuation of the strong upward momentum that started on March 4, when the pair broke above 0.9450. This rally was driven by the announcement of a €500 billion infrastructure and defense spending plan in Germany, which boosted confidence in the euro.
On March 5, the pair surged from 0.9454 to 0.9615, marking a sharp 1.7% gain. This was followed by an extension to 0.9636 on March 6 before EUR/CHF dropped back to close at 0.9510. The pullback suggests that the rally may have been overextended, leading to profit-taking.
The rejection at 0.9636 could indicate that the market sees this level as a short-term resistance. The sharp drop of 126 pips suggests that bullish momentum has weakened. Now, the key question is whether EUR/CHF can stabilize above 0.9510 or if further downside is likely.
